Anybody that has been handicapping the National football league spread using situational techniques for just about any period of time is most likely acquainted with the word 'sandwich' (because it is applicable to sports betting). For individuals which are thinking more like sliced pork or poultry: within the arena of National football league handicapping, it describes a scenario that appears in a window of three consecutive games in which the 'middle' game is encircled, or sandwiched with a different circumstance that's contained in another 2 games.
This is a quite simple illustration of a 'sandwich' at the office: It calls for teams which are facing a non-divisional opponent after facing a divisional opponent having a SU Wordpress > .500 within their past game This will let you divisional opponent having a SU Wordpress > .500 approaching within their next game. Teams in cases like this are actually a dismal 42-64 ATS since 1994.
Games
This sounds great at first glance, but, you will find potential issues with this particular type of analysis.
Situations and past trends built on sandwiches are, usually, fairly simplistic in character. Most derive from arranging factors that don't require an excessively complicated database or perhaps an especially sharp handicapper to locate. Consequently, many situations of the type happen to be overused and understood onto through the general wagerer in the last 15-two decades, therefore reducing their effectiveness and profitability.
The let-lower situation I briefly referred to earlier concerning teams facing a Non-Divisional opponent is a great one: After going 32-57 ATS between 1994 and 2003, teams within this place have switched things around previously four years having a 10-7 record from the spread.
Stop worrying, however. Situational trends which involve sandwiches can nonetheless be lucrative. The caveat is the fact that we can simply become a bit more advanced in regards to what other concerns are incorporated, to ensure that the conditions all around the situation aren't something that almost all gamblers placing wagers every week will be familiar with.
The specific trend I must take a look at with this article involves teams within an Away Sandwich including all teams playing their current game on the highway, after a house game and preceding another home game.
Alone, this case is not lucrative in the last 14 years (605-644 ATS for that team involved). But, whenever we add 2 other concerns towards the mix, we've ourselves a really effective trend that's been a regular champion for 14 straight years.
When we go onto specify the team under consideration should have an excellent Pass Offense Rating (POF > ), we all of a sudden possess a situation that's 247-315 (44.%) ATS since 1994, creating an income of ,330.00 (wagering 0 to regain 0 on each game while betting against this team, obviously). Pretty good for any fundamental trend that's built on only 2 conditions.
For individuals who do not know my calculation of POF: this can be a rating built on yards-per-play stats which are modified for the effectiveness of all competitors faced.
For example, if Atlanta would average 5.8 yards-per-spread offense versus several competitors that normally surrenders typically 6.3 yards-per-pass, their POF rating would effectively be -.50 (6.three to five.8). It ought to be noted that plays for example Quarterback kneel-downs and spiked balls aren't incorporated within the calculation of pass rankings and very lengthy pass plays are assigned at 60 yards.
The final primary condition (i.e., foundation) that should be included in this situation identifies the current opponent for teams involved should have a substandard Passing Game Rating (PG (a Passing Game rating is just POF + PDE). In line with the 3 conditions to date, teams really are a brutal 117-193 (37.7%) ATS since 1994 for any profit of ,430.00 at 10/11 odds.
So, why has this specific trend been so effective? Just like most of the situations I utilize, it's most likely lower to a mix of factors. Within this situation, there exists a team with a decent Pass Offense facing a rival having a poor overall passing game, on the highway--a troika of things that induce both a disappointment situation for the focus team, combined with proven fact that amateur gamblers normally overvalue teams with an above average passing attack facing a rival which has both an inadequate pass offense and defense. Add everything up and you receive a situation covering over 300 games in which the team under consideration does not cover multiplication just below 2 from every 3 tries.
Additionally towards the 3 primary conditions involved, you will find also 3 secondary problems that complete this case.
Teams which are coming off a BYE WEEK are removed (this is extremely common for trends including a 'sandwich') and teams that surrender an very high number of sacks per-pass-play (> 10%) will also be not incorporated. Finally, teams in cases like this should have a Hurry Defense Rating that's a maximum of 1 point greater than their current opponent.
This specific situation is among the most extensive from the 100+ which i track each season. It features a TDIS% (Trend Distribution Percentage) of 100% meaning, each and every team within the National football league continues to be involved sooner or later or any other since 1994. A higher TDIS% contributes to a trends stability and also the odds are excellent this situation will work well, once more, in 2008.
Listed here are all of the particulars.
(Notes: ASMR means Average Spread Margin Rating. An optimistic rating signifies a trend that's more powerful than average as opposed to the line, negative--less strong than average. TDIS% may be the number of teams within the league which have been involved in cases like this at some point. WT% may be the number of teams which are .500 or better and SPR may be the average spread for teams in cases like this. For additional particulars, please consult Page 13 of my 2007 National football league Game Sheets Guide.)
Situational Trend #6 Summary
Primary Conditions (Foundations)
1) Team is within an Away Sandwich (AS).
2) Team comes with an Excellent Pass Offense Rating (POF).
3) Current Opponent includes a Substandard Passing Game Rating (POF + PDE).
Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Team Hurry Defense Rating - Opponent RDE 10.
3) Team isn't coming off a BYE WEEK.
Situation Stats
ASMR: +.8
Home%: .
Dog%: 37.5
TDIS%: 100.
WT%: 73.2
SPR: -1.84
Top Teams: GB(16) DAL(15) NO(15) MIN(13)
Situation Records
Overall (Since '94): 77-173 ATS
2007 Season: 4-12 ATS
2006 Season: 6-13 ATS
2005 Season: 12-15 ATS
2004 Season: 6-15 ATS
Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.
2007 WK16--SF 21 TB 19 (SF +6) W
2007 WK16--CIN 19 CLE 14 (CIN +3) W
2007 WK15--Vehicle 13 Ocean 10 (Vehicle +7) W
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